"What will we teach as History in schools of Madhesh once we are
free ?" pondered Dr. C K Raut when i met him just a few days before the
second phase of local elections in 2017. Come 2019 he has himself entered the
History books by signing a 11 point agreement with the KP Oli led Government to
give up his demand for Independent Madhesh and enter mainstream politics of
Nepal. Using his Alliance for Independent Madhesh as the foundation stone Dr.
Raut has floated a political party named "Janmat" on 18th of March
this year. History will judge if this is a surrender as some critics call it or
a short term strategy to gather strength from legitimate Janmat as his
supporters proclaim.
Political Landscape
C K Raut's Janmat party enters an already crowded political landscape of
Madhesh. Nepal Communist Party (NCP) which rules at the center and Nepali
Congress (the main opposition in the federal parliament) are the two oldest parties of the country (NCP in
its earlier avatar UML ) hence have a significant grassroots organization and
cadre base in Madhesh . Then there are Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) &
Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (FSFN) both of whose support base is primarily
the Madhesh . These two parties fought the 2017 Provincial & Parliamentary
elections together as the Madheshi
Alliance and now run a coalition government in Province 2 that has 8 districts
of Central Madhesh. The Janmat Party will primarily be targeting the support
base of these two parties if it is to contest the next elections based on the
issue of Identity & Inclusion.
RJPN projects to be a party for diverse caste base. This is partially evident
in their selection of First Past The Post (FPTP) candidates for the Federal
elections held in 2017. RJPN's
candidate list for the 15 Federal Parliamentary seats
they contested in Province 2 has 27% Yadavs , 27 % Madheshi Upper Castes, 7%
Tharu , 7 % Bahun Chhetri Newar , 7 % Muslims and 27% Other Castes. On the
surface this list looks diverse but with 27% candidates selected from the Madheshi
Upper Castes (which is significantly disproportionate to their population)
their bias becomes clear.
FSFN projects itself as a party for the marginalized across Nepal
especially the Madheshi and Janjati. A closer look at the FPTP candidate
list for the 17 Federal Parliamentary seats
they contested in Province 2 reveals that they allocated more than 50% seats to
the Yadavs (which is disproportionate to their population) where as 0% seats
were allocated to Muslim & Tharu who are
the second and third largest population group in Province2. Notwithstanding
their national ambitions FSFN is primarily viewed as a party of Yadavs.
Disproportionate Representation
Out of 32 Federal Parliamentary seats in Province 2 , 10 (31%) was won
by Yadav candidates, 5 (16%) by Madheshi Upper Castes, 5 (16%) by Bahun Chhetri
Newar , 3 (9%) by Tharu and 2 (6%) by Muslims where as candidates from Other
caste groups won only 7 (22%) seats. With this disproportionate number of Yadav
and Upper Caste MPs, many in Province 2 (especially Non Yadav and Non Upper
Castes) don't see an Inclusive Political representation and there is room for
Janmat to tap into this dissatisfaction. With nearly 30% or more share in
directly elected representation from Province 2 in Federal Parliament, Provincial
Assembly , Rural & Urban Municipality Mayors as well as Provincial Cabinet
of Province 2 , Yadavs are viewed as the new ruling elite by other caste groups
in the province. There is increasing anti Yadav - anti upper caste sentiments
in Province 2 which the Janmat Party would want to convert into votes in its
favor.
Electoral Impact
It is also important to look at the impact the new party will have on
the electoral prospects of FSFN & RJPN . Unlike FSFN which has the huge
Yadav voter base (17% of population as per 2011 census) behind it , RJPN has no single caste base with a
significant voting population behind it thus is more vulnerable to loss in
voter base if its Non Yadav , Non Upper Caste voters decide to switch their
support to the new Janmat party. The 2017 Provincial &
Federal elections was fought by FSFN & RJPN as the Madheshi Alliance. This
was the single most important factor that enabled them to win 19
out of 32 FPTP seats in the Federal parliament as well
as 35 seats in the Province2 assembly as the pro Inclusion and Identity vote
did not split. 9 out of 19 (47%) FPTP Federal Parliament seats was won by the
Madheshi Alliance with less than 10% vote margin over their nearest rivals.
Infact 5 out of these 19 seats (26%) was won by margin of 5% votes or less. The
picture remains similar in the Provincial Assembly FPTP seats where 11 out of
35 (31%) FPTP Provincial assembly seats was won by the Madheshi Alliance with
less than 10% vote margin over their nearest rivals . If the Janmat party
manages to split the Madheshi vote both RJPN and FSFN may pay a heavy electoral
price. No wonder the hype for a merger between the two parties has resurfaced .
Kothli k Bahar
It is also important to point out that this alliance lost 5 FPTP Federal
Parliament seats and 8 FPTP Provincial Assembly seats of Province 2 by 5% or less vote margin in the 2017
elections. The Janmat Party's mother organization AIM had asked its supporters
to stamp their ballots outside the box allocated to parties called "Kothli
ke Bahar" in order to symbolically record their agenda of Independent
Madhesh. Although there are no official figures of these Invalid votes cast
across Madhesh , in light of recent development some critics of CK Raut have
started saying this could have been a
conspiracy to ensure the defeat of the Madheshi Alliance and victory of the
Communist Alliance. Conspiracy or not the "Kothli ke Bahar" campaign
did result in many votes that would have otherwise gone to the Madheshi
Alliance being cast invalid.
Alliance
CK Raut's major appeal for young Madheshi voters had been the
revolutionary idea of secession , now that he has officially given up on that
idea it remains to be seen how much support he can retain. There have been
reports in the media (refuted by CK Raut) that he will be joining the NCP or
forming an alliance with them. This will be a shortcut to political success for
CK Raut but neither the NCP nor the Janmat Party will gain much in electoral
terms. It is more beneficial to NCP if Janmat splits the RJPN/ FSFN votes
acting as a 'vote katwa' and enables the NCP to gain the missing vote for
victory. If the Janmat Party is not the team B of NCP and wants a long term
role in Madhesh politics it makes more
sense for them to ally with the RJPN as some of their support base overlap and
they have FSFN as a common local enemy. RJPN leadership has always been fearful
of Upendra Yadav and his FSFN as the
huge electoral weight he brings (because of his caste base) enables him to act
more than an equal to them.
Day after the Revolution
Only the future will reveal the story of Janmat party and its founder Ck
Raut's success or failure but for me a lot will depend on his answer to the
question i had asked him in my above mentioned meeting . " Tell me what
are your plans for Madhesh after your revolution succeeds ? Everyone talks of
revolution but no one tells us about the Work they start on the Day after the
Revolution " i asked to which he remained unclear. I hope now that he has
formally given up his demand for Secession he can focus more on issues like
Social & Gender Inequality within Madhesh, Unemployment among youth of
Madhesh and Lack of proper infrastructure/services for Healthcare &
Education .
An edited version of this blog was posted as a OpEd in The Kathmandu Post on 3rd of April 2019
An edited version of this blog was posted as a OpEd in The Kathmandu Post on 3rd of April 2019